Preview of the Season: Norwich

Neo: Guns. Lots of Guns.

Asked by Tank how he is what he is going to need in his upcoming mission, Neo replies that he needs weapons. Lots of Weapons. As the racks of guns come zooming out of the blank white space of the empty program, it is evident that Neo's available choice is endless. (He then just picks the three closest guns to hand without considering magazine capacity or suitability for the job). Norwich were in a similar situation this summer, with so many potential weapons to choose from.

Last Season was an odd one for Norwich. Chris Hughton’s Norwich team were tough to play at home last season winning 31 points but relegation candidates away, only managing to accrue 13 points in their 19 away games.  This 18 point differential was the third largest in the Premier league behind only West Ham and Everton. Interestingly all three of these teams play a version off 4-4-2 which suggests that whilst being aggressive at home and committing men forward was a successful strategy for them, it was a real negative away from home as it invited pressure onto the defence and left them a defender short. 

Luckily for Norwich then, the strength of the team was the defence. This may not seem the case with Norwich having conceded 58 goals last season but Norwich’s defensive stats were deceptively bad due to the number of times they got thrashed. 6 times Norwich conceded 4 0r more goals in a match, accounting for 27 of the 58 they conceded in total. This means that they only conceded 31 in their remaining 32 games, definitely few enough to remain in contention in all of those games.

This solid defense was predicated on the strong and combative performances of Sebastian Bassong, Michael Turner, Javier Garrido and Russell Martin. The ‘Leeds connection’ midfield trio of Jonny Howson, Bradley Johnson and Robert Snodgrass gave tireless and committed displays, up and own like yo-yo's. Snodgrass and Anthony Pilkington, the other wide man in Hughton’s strict 4-4-2, both had excellent seasons going forward, Snodgrass providing 6 goals and 6 assists with Pilkington getting 5 goals and 3 assists.

The problems for Hughton started and finished in the final third last season. Target man Grant Holt, slowly ossifying as he became ever more static, was still the top scorer with 8 league goals and a wide variety of other striking options all contributed with a couple of goals each bringing their final tally to 41 in all. When your Bassong is your fourth highest scorer with 3, you have serious problems. Like Neo, Hughton needed some firepower.

Can anyone explain to me why only half his hair has
started going grey?

Hughton has spent some serious money on a new little and large combo in an attempt to rectify this. Gary Hooper has recently signed for £5.5m from Celtic. A natural finisher, Hooper is a diminutive striker in the mold of Michael Owen. Though not as quick as Owen, Hooper’s instinct for goal and his intelligent movement in the box made him the top scorer in the Scottish Premiership last season. Striker Ricky Van Wolfswinkel (owner of European football’s second best name after Jan Venegoor of Hesselink) signed from Sporting Lisbon for a club record transfer fee of £8m. Van Wolfswinkel (the Wolf) scored 45 goals in 88 appearances in Portugal, an excellent strike rate.

I am sure that he is engaging in a philosophical debate
on the nature of existence, a subject that Norwich fan
Stephen Fry would appreciate, rather than just abusing
someone for cutting off the hair on the side of his head...

It could be argued that the Portuguese and Scottish leagues are not as tough as the Premier League and that their performances there are no indicator of success in the Premier League. Accepting the validity of that argument as I do, I would counter it with a few factors lead me to think that both Hooper and the Wolf will adapt well to the premier league. In Hooper’s case the sheer weight of goals throughout his career suggest that he is a natural finisher. This is a valuable skill in the Premier League as many of the opportunities he will get will be half chances at best. For a penalty box striker Hooper is a good link up player as his low centre of gravity and strong legs allow him to hold up the ball and bring other players into the game. These attributes should allow him to thrive in the physicality of the Premiership.

YES! My career goals are complete! I am playing
for Alan Partridge! AH HA!

By contrast the Wolf is a Dutch striker who likes to lead the line. This type of player has traditionally done very well in the Premier League with Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, Ruud Van Nistelrooy and Robin Van Persie all springing to mind suggesting that the Wolf won’t have to adapt his game too much. Secondly, the Wolf’s performances in European competition, often a more accurate assessor of talent and performance level, have been great scoring 17 goals in 32 matches. It would be foolish to think that both of these players will score in the volume and quantity they were used to before, but if they were able to score between 25-30 goals between them this season it would substantially increase their chances of top 10 finish. 

Whether they can manage 25-30 goals will be as much down to their supply as it will be their own talents. To adapt the old Shaun Goater chant, If nobody feeds the Wolf, how will he score? As previously noted Snodgrass and Pilkington had excellent seasons in the wide areas but both are very similar players. Neither has exceptional pace to go past defenders, instead relying on trickery and technical skill to create chances. This led to an over reliance on set pieces, with 18 of their 41 goals coming from dead ball situations. Nathan Redmond, the youngest player ever to play for Birmingham and the only player to come out of England U21’s tournament debacle in Israel with any credit, has been signed to provide that pace. Hughton will be looking for him to have a similar impact that Raheem Stirling had for Liverpool last season. In central midfield new signing Leroy Fer, nicknamed the Bouncer, will play a physical holding role allowing other midfielders to attack with more freedom than last season. My prediction for this team is a top ten finish. Hughton has his guns; can he make them fire?

Preview of the Season: Aston Villa

Morpheus: I'm trying to free your mind, Neo. But I can only show you the door. You're the one that has to walk through it.

In this scene Morpheus is mentoring Neo, trying to help him fulfill his potential as the One. This bares comparison with the role that Paul Lambert is playing at Aston Villa. Lambert took a huge gamble last season, playing an exceptionally young squad, barely out of nappies by Premier League standards, doing just enough to stay up. Injuries robbed Villa of experienced senior players like Richard Dunne (missed the season) and captain Ron Vlaar (missed 10 games). Cancer forced club captain and club legend Stilyan

True Legend. 

Petrov into an early retirement. Without these old heads to rely on, the playing squad’s collective lack of experience cost them huge away defeats at Chelsea, Man City and Southampton early in the season. Ill discipline, often an indicator of a lack of experience, plagued the side with Villa finishing behind only Stoke and Newcastle as the leagues dirtiest side with 72 yellows and 3 reds. Despite this, Lambert’s confidence, publically at least, never wavered in his squad.

As the season wore on results improved as Lambert was able to instill some confidence and know-how into his young side. The pacey duo of Gabby Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann behind young Drogba clone, Christian Benteke, began to strike fear into opposing defenses (the three of them combined for 35 of Villa’s 47 league goals). Villa were especially lethal on the counter attack, scoring 6 goals in this way, equal second in the premier league. This firepower culminated with a 6-1 destruction of Sunderland and 15^th place in the league.

This season Lambert will look for progression from his young team. With Richard Dunne having been shipped off to QPR and Petrov retiring, Villa will need some of their youngsters to step into a leadership role to support Vlaar. Promising centre halves, Ciaran Clarke and Nathan Baker, and defensive midfielder Ashley Westwood will all look to progress in this department and improve their discipline as they become more experienced. Surprisingly both Clark and Baker were in the top 10 in the league for both blocks and clearances, with Clark leading the league in clearances per match. This says something about the promise the pair showed but it also highlights the pressure Villa invited onto themselves on a consistent basis. Though outmatched for much of last season the experience will hold all of them in good stead for this season and Lambert will confident of progression being made in a defense that conceded 69 goals, higher than any other team that wasn’t relegated.

Benteke playing a team of dwarves dressed in a Sunderland kit.

Primarily, however he will be concerned about a lack of squad depth, especially in the forward positions. Benteke was a beast last season for Villa last season scoring 19 league goals in his first season, amounting to 40% of Villa’s total goal tally. This figure is the highest in the league by some distance. If Benteke were to miss an extended period of time Villa would seriously miss his goal threat and his link up play. Benteke was brilliant in the air last season providing 4 assists and winning 7.9 aerial duels per match, putting him behind only Andy Carroll and Peter Crouch. Lambert will be delighted to have fended off interest from Spurs in Benteke in exchange for an improved contract for the big man.

Benteke’s lively wingman Weimann is just as important to the Villa cause. Weimann played in 26 games last season, winning 10. In the 12 games he missed Villa failed to register a single win. Though his stats, 7 goals and 2 assists, aren’t gaudy, its clear that his movement, work rate and ability are of vital importance to Villa’s chances next season. Local boy, Gabby Agbonlahor, also had a good end to the season with 6 of his 9 goals coming in Villa’s last 10 games. The alternatives to Weimann and Agbonlahor last season, N’Zogbia and Albrighton, failed to assert themselves when on the pitch last season and that is a cause for alarm.

Lambert has realized that without these two for any extended period next season Villa may struggle. To counter this Lambert has strengthened these areas with signings of Aleksandar Tonev (£3m left winger from Bulgaria) and Nicklas Helenius (£1.5m centre forward from Denmark). Lambert has also added four other players in a variety of positions, the most prominent of which is Okore, a young centre half costing £4m. All of these players are under 23, fitting the Villa transfer strategy of buying young talent in order to develop it.

Paul Lambert shouting at kids.

This concept of development was the key to Villa’s last season and will be the key to the coming one as well. Signs of progression on last season’s performance will be the signifier of success this season. Any improvement on 15^th will be difficult, as Villa have not invested as much as the other clubs around them such as Southampton and Norwich but 12^th is out of the question. Villa and Lambert are giving youth a chance; it is up for them to take their opportunity.

Preview of The Premier League: Arsenal

I Know Kung Fu

It’s that time again! The football league season has begun again, specifically at Brammall Lane (the world’s oldest league ground) in a match between Sheffield United and Notts County (the world’s oldest professional football club). The match ended 2-1 to the home side; a result largely influenced by an early red card for Notts County centre half, Gary Liddle, for a brutal Kung Fu kick to Kevin McDonalds’s ribs.  The kick got me thinking about The Matrix, probably my all time favourite action movie and almost certainly one of the most quotable movies of all time. With this in mind, I decided to link my season preview of the Premier League to quotes from the film (huge spoiler alert). If you haven’t seen the film, watch it first then thank me later. Without further ado and in no particular order, here are a few thoughts and predictions about each team, one or two per day.  

Agent Smith: You hear that Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability... It is the sound of your death... Goodbye, Mr. Anderson...

Neo: My name... is Neo.

At this point in the movie Hugo Weaving’s devilish Agent Smith is holding down Mr. Anderson/Neo on a railway track. As the train approaches Neo is at maximum jeopardy in the film. In order to evade death, Neo is forced to abandon his doubts, reject his former self (Mr. Anderson) and embrace his destiny as the One (Neo). In doing so Neo is able to defeat Agent Smith and begin his journey towards his almost divine status as the One.

Arsenal are at a similar crunch point. For a few years now, Arsenal have not been competing for the title. Much has been made of the variety of financial factors that have factored into this decline. Since Arsenal last won a trophy, they have had to pay off their shiny new stadium, Ashburton Grove, thus making them unable to spend big money on world-class players. Arsenal are also one of the few remaining Premier League clubs where an individual is not in majority ownership of the club. Each of the major shareholders have to agree making major investment harder than the sugar daddy model employed by their rivals. This makes the club prudent but indecisive and risk averse, not a good combination for acquiring world-class talent.

As I have written before, the financial restraint this put on the club also forced them to sell their top players to their rivals, E.g. Van Persie, Fabregas, Clichy and Nasri. Second and third-rate players, such as Giroud, Santos and Gervinho, have consistently replaced these quality players creating a cultural acceptance of Champions League football as the priority target. It has got to the point where financial prudence may be actively damaging the club. With their major rivals like Spurs, City, Chelsea and United prepared to spend major cash in order to improve their sides, Arsenal’s consistent financial prudence off the field may soon lead to the loss of their Champions League spot on the field.

Arsene's happy face...

One major side effect of this financial pressure is that it appears to have worn out Arsene Wenger in the last few years. Wenger has managed more Premier League games than all the other managers in the league combined. This is experience but it is also age. Constantly having to fight with one armed tied behind his back, Wenger has begun to lose his va va voom. The knowing smile and twinkle in his eye as he ‘did not see the incident’ have been replaced by a permanent puffer jacketed scowl. As an old man, used to challenging for titles, it has become harder and harder for Wenger to get motivated, especially as he is now annually having to settle for 4^th. The production line of talented youngsters that used to dominate the league cup, once a source of pride for Wenger, has dried up. The doubts will be creeping in, as they have already amongst a restless fanbase. Has Wenger lost that appetite for success that made him so good? Can he repeat the success of the late nineties and early noughties?

Arsene's sad face

The signs of recovery are coming. Arsenal haven’t sold a major player this summer for the first time since Wenger last cracked a smile. Giroud and Podolski are likely to improve in their second season having acclimatized to English football. Santi Cazorla will continue to be the best two-footed player in the league (I really can’t work out if he is naturally left or right footed). Mertersacker and Koscielny’s centre back partnership was much under-rated last season and was crucial to Arsenal’s late season run to 4^th; a run so good that, had the season started in February, Arsenal would have been top. With Arsenal’s British core of Wilshire, Walcott, Ramsey and Chamberlain all receiving new contracts last season to stave off outside interest, Arsenal’s core is strong but lacking in belief. None of this squad has ever won the Premier League before.

Neo dodging AVB.

It is vital then that they supplement this summer with world-class talent to give that belief to the squad, manager and fans. Having missed out on Higuain, their focus is now entirely on Suarez. Suarez has game changing talent and plays as a deep lying striker and would be the focal point of Arsenal’s 4-2-3-1 system. Without Suarez, a tough season beckons with Spurs and possibly Liverpool snapping at their heels. However signing Suarez could signal the resurgence of an Arsenal title challenge. Wenger and the board need to believe in themselves and reaffirm themselves as challengers before they get run over by the oncoming north London tube train driven by Andre Villas Boas.

The London Jaguars?

It’s been a slow news week in sport. The third test of this increasingly one-sided Ashes series does not start until next week and the transfer saga outlined here is no closer to resolution, so I have decided to focus today on football from across the pond.

A much under reported story this summer was the new ownership of Fulham Football Club. Mohammed Al Fayed, owner of Harrods and the Paris Ritz, had been the owner, since 1997 when he bought the club outright for £6.25m.[1] Fulham quickly climbed the leagues and became a Premier League side in 2001 under the guidance of Jean Tigana. Since then Fulham has become a solid and occasionally spectacular mid-table club with a great home record, mainly due to the cramped and unusual nature of Craven Cottage, often mercurial players and a dubious away record.

Al Fayed is the one with the comedy moustache. No help?
Khan is the one on the right.

Al Fayed is now 84 and had personally invested, as of 2011, £187m in interest free loans to Fulham. In order to recoup his money, (and by all accounts make a profit) Al Fayed sold his stake to Shahid Khan, an auto-parts billionaire of Pakistani origin, now based in Jacksonville, USA. On the face of it this merely appears to be two foreign billionaires exchanging an expensive plaything, a toy for their egos.[2]

Except this is not Khan’s first foray into sports ownership: In January 2012 Khan acquired the Jacksonville Jaguars, an NFL team, from Wayne Weaver. On the face of it these two facts are unremarkable. The Glazers own the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Manchester United. Randy Lerner owns Aston Villa and used to own the Cleveland Browns. Stan Kroenke, the largest shareholder in Arsenal, owns the St Louis Rams and a myriad of sports franchises in Colorado. It is not the dual ownership that is remarkable; it is the deal that Khan signed with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell immediately after gaining ownership of the Jacksonville Jaguars that is significant. In August 2012, less than six months after taking ownership of the Jaguars, Khan announced they had finalized a deal to play one regular season home game each year between 2013 and 2016 at Wembley Stadium.

Roger Goodell. So unpopular he has a meme.

What’s the big deal about one game some people will ask? Remember the outcry when the Premier league suggested a 39th game to be played abroad every year? This is a whole lot worse. The NFL has a 16 game regular season, eight of which are played at home. Giving up one game a season for the next four seasons is a huge sacrifice for the fan-base. The average fan will now only get to see his team play live 7 times in a year, a reduction of 12.5%. If I was a Jaguars fan I would be angry about this for one season, for four seasons it would like being given a shit sandwich. So why has Khan slapped his own fan-base in the face?

Maurice Jones Drew. Running back and
the Jaguars best player. Rushing
touchdowns last season? 1.

Khan claims that the decision to play in London is to increase the fan-base of the Jaguars. This is not a wholly unreasonable argument as Jacksonville is only the third largest city in the State of Florida (behind Miami and Tampa). Though Jacksonville is a relatively large city of 775,000 people it only has a small area of suburbs, making Jacksonville a small market team in comparison to the larger metropolis’ that dominates US sport. In order to increase their market share the Jaguars do need to get creative. Playing in Toronto, Canada, has helped the Buffalo Bills increase their revenue and fan-base by becoming more of a regional team. The Jaguars could potentially think about playing games in Mexico or Puerto Rico given the number of Hispanic residents of Florida. Instead Khan has volunteered his team to be the resident home team in London, on the face of it a vast untapped market full of potential Jaguar fans.

Except the Jaguar’s fan-base is exceptionally unlikely to increase substantially by playing in the UK for two major reasons. Firstly the Jags currently suck. They tied for the worst record in the NFL last season and have the worst cumulative record in the NFL over the last three seasons. It is highly unlikely that a team is going to gain many new fans in the UK by repeatedly playing terrible football in front of them. Secondly, the fans that go to watch the NFL games in London almost all have a team already. On game day Wembley is littered with people in shirts of teams that aren’t playing, with people mostly attending due to a love of the sport rather than an affiliation with the teams actually playing. Both of these problems are widely documented and this helps to disprove the theory that increasing the fan-base, whatever Khan has said, is the reasoning behind the Jaguars London trips.

In reality it appears that Khan is loading things up for a run at the London Jaguars.[3] The new links to Fulham and London will help Khan to pull in sponsorship for the new team and will help him build contacts to do business in the UK. The Jaguars trips to London have nothing to do with strengthening the Jaguars brand, rather they are to reinforce our familiarity with their players, as they will be the only holdovers from the Jacksonville incarnation of the team. The team will be repackaged and redesigned, with new kit (uniforms), club badges (logos) and nickname. Presumably a PR company will be paid millions to come up with a name that is both forceful and British, something that could be done by a small child, (or me or you, any suggestions?).[4]

Just buy out the ice hockey team and
you are away!

A franchise in London isn’t just the pipedream of Shahid Khan either. The NFL actively wants this to happen. Everything the league has done in the last few years signals that this is no passing fancy– including increasing regular season games to two annually and making the Jaguars annual tenants. Roger Goodell, the League Commissioner (a position created by the 32 owners to run the league in such a way as to make as much money as possible for the said owners) has created an International Committee to provide detailed updates on the NFL in London. Committee member Eric Grubmann is reported to have said that, “We want to have a team in London – Our goal is to get a team there and make this happen.”[5]

Why is the NFL so keen on this idea? The domestic US market is tapped out. The TV deals are signed through 2020 and the only large market without a team is LA.[6] The Buffalo Bills are expanding into Canada and occasionally play Mexico as well. That leaves only London. Last time I looked at how the Premier League teams have used the Far East to expand their fan-base and revenue streams; the NFL is viewing London in the same way.[7] At this point it is important to note that the NFL is a profit sharing League. Any money that the league/individual team makes goes in the pot, which is then divided up equally at the end of the season. A strong London franchise with its potentially massive marketing, merchandizing and television deals is worth a great deal more to the league and its owners than the small market of Jacksonville.[8]

Rather than deprive Jacksonville of its team, why not expand the amount of teams to include London and LA? Again this idea of profit sharing comes in. The owners don’t want their piece of the pie cut up any smaller than it already is. Therefore any way of making the overall pie larger, as a European franchise definitely would, is much more appealing.

There is no denying that there are potential problems with a franchise in London. The most critical of these would be a lack of fan interest. The NFL certainly does not see this as a problem at the moment. Some argue that this is just novelty factor and that London is still not ready for a franchise. If this were the case that novelty should be wearing off by now as this is the seventh season in which regular season games have been played in London. All of the Wembley matches so far have been sellouts and this looks set to continue this year despite the pressure of adding a second game. Commissioner Goodell is so confidant of success that he has recently put forward the idea of a third game being played in London, potentially with the Jaguars playing host again.[9] It does not seem that a lack of interest will stop London from playing host to a franchise.

Another huge potential problem is US players not wanting to live in the UK. Andrew Whitworth, offensive lineman and Players Union rep of the Cincinnati Bengals threatened to retire if he landed on a team that moved to London. As the most connected player in regards to how the team feels due to his position in the players association his words carry weight when he says that, "I don't see that a lot of guys would want to do that," he said. "I don't see any players that would enjoy that. Sure, you may find a handful of guys that say, 'Oh, hey, that'd be cool,' but the rest of them wouldn't."[10]

This is a massive problem that it will be difficult to overcome. Many of the NFL’s signings come from free agency and the draft. If draft picks won’t sign for the team and they are unable to recruit in free agency it will be almost impossible for a London franchise to field a competitive team in the long term. Continuously poor on-field results could easily lead to fans growing disillusioned with the team and the NFL losing its hard gained goodwill. Of all the problems facing a London franchise this is the most insoluble, as there appears to be no obvious solution. Throwing money at the problem (maybe a bonus paid by the NFL to anyone who signs for the team in free agency?) could persuade some players but the foreign nature of the UK could really put off a large proportion of players.

Some people have raised the difficulty of travel but I don’t really see this as much of an issue. The league would make scheduling as friendly on the team and their opponents as easy as possible in order to make this work. In fact to make this work In addition the flight from London to New York is not that much longer than San Francisco to the Big Apple but nobody is complaining about that are they?[11] This is definitely the easiest problem to solve though.

"D..... Fence" clap, clap, clap. Rubbish. Just rubbish.   

A London franchise is a ‘when’ not an ‘if.’ Will it be the Jaguars? I think it is incredibly likely. Will they be supported? A straw poll of friends interested in the NFL (6 people) suggested that half would support a new London team, 33% would look out for them as a second team and one person would love to hate them. Given the love/hate relationship Brits usually have with our sports teams this seems to be a perfect balance! I am all for change and new things, I will use the terminology of the sport I am following even if I wince when they pronounce route (root) as rowt. I will hold big ridiculous signs so inane that remind me of wrestling. I will shout pathetic chants like, “lets go Jaguars!” over and over again with all the wit of a 4 year old.[12] I just won’t call football, Soccer.

---

[1] Technically a shell company in the tax haven of Bermuda called Mafco owned the club but it was controlled and owned by Al Fayed.

[2] Khan’s fortune is estimated to be $2.5b. By contrast Al Fayed’s is a mere $1.2b...

[3] If they kept the name, which I doubt, think of the sponsorship deal they could get with Jaguar!

[4]No points for the sillynannies... tut tut. It is almost certain they would change the name of the franchise on arrival in London. Off the top of my head, I like the British Blitz or the London Bulldogs. Suggestions in the comments please.

[5] According to NFL insider Jason La Canfora on CBS sports.

[6] It’s always been a basketball and college football town, hence why the city lost its Rams franchise to St. Louis in 1994. In some justification California still has the Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers.

[7] The Premier League teams have also done the same in the US selling out 80,000 seat stadiums at $100 a ticket for glorified run-arounds.

[8] One of the smaller markets, maybe San Diego, Oakland or St. Louis may be on its way to LA for the same reasons.

[9] http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/american-football/22780936

[10] http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2013/06/06/andrew-whitworth-cincinnati-nfl-london-team/2397571/

[11] Actually some people are. There is some statistical analysis that early kickoff games played in the west are advantageous to the home team… Maybe a British team would do well at home but struggle with the time difference away.

[12] This is an area we Brits can teach the Yanks a thing or two. American chants are worse than terrible. If we had our own team, British chants would pretty soon be the best in the league, no argument.

The Art of the War on a Far Eastern Tour; Sun Tzu’s guide to the English Transfer Window.

It has become customary these days for the top teams in the Premier League to open their seasons with a tour to the Far East. This is remarkable because the Far East is almost entirely unsuitable as place to go to regain fitness and match sharpness. The humidity and heat are stifling and the travel distances are extreme.  Players often complain that they come back in worse condition than they left. The reason that the teams put their reluctant players through this tour, of course, is money.

For a long time Asia, especially the Far East was a vast untapped market in Football. Despite its huge population, burgeoning economies and the predominance of globalization, Asia was the land that Football forgot. There were no great Asian players and there appeared to be very little interest shown by anyone of importance in establishing the game in the region. This all changed when FIFA decided, in Sepp Blatter’s only known good decision, to give the 2002 World Cup to Japan and South Korea. The tournament was wildly successful with every game a sellout and ardent fandom shown towards stars like David Beckham and Ronaldo. Above all it showed the world that the appetite for the game in the Far East was there if only it could be tapped into.

Marketing managers of the Premier League clubs  were the quickest to grasp the size and value of the Far Eastern Market and many clubs made concessions in an attempt to increase their market share in the region. The first method was to buy players from the country you wanted support from. Manchester United signed the inept Dong Fangzhou from Chinese side Dalian Shide in 2004, the workaholic Korean Park Ji Sung in 2005 and the talented Japanese playmaker Shinji Kagawa in 2012. I feel it is no coincidence that these three players just happen to come from the three largest Asian markets.

Arsene Wenger had managed Nagoya Grampus out in Japan before getting his Arsenal job and came to a similar conclusion as United, signing the average Junichi Inamoto in 2002. He barely played and was quickly moved on to Fulham. Yesterday it was notable that Ryo Miyaichi, a player whose last two loan moves have corresponded with that teams relegation (Bolton and Wigan), made a rare appearance in the second half of Arsenal’s pre-season game against Vietnam. Is he good enough to play for Arsenal? No. Is he a good marketing tool for Arsenal? Absolutely.

Arsenal beat an Indonesian XI on the weekend and thrashed Vietnam 7-1 yesterday. Chelsea played a best-of–the-Thai-league team, winning 1-0. Man United are now in Australia having already been to Thailand. With all of these top sides encouraging fans in the East to look west for their inspiration, it seems that they have found some inspiration themselves from some ancient eastern wisdom. Given the way the way that this transfer window has been unfolding I have a sneaky suspicion that many of the participants have been reading Sun Tzu’s ‘The Art of War.’

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win”

The key to the transfer strategies being displayed this summer is that it is not just enough to just strengthen your own squad. In strengthening your own squad you must weaken your opponents. This isn’t the first time teams have done this. In recent years Manchester City in particular and Manchester United have ripped the heart out of Arsenal’s challenge by constantly poaching their best players. Samir Nasri, Gael Clichy and Emmanuel Adebayor went as players to City, club legend Patrick Viera went as head of City’s elite development squad. Like a bad school drama, the new kid (City) picked on another kid (Arsenal) to get respect from the other teams (United, Spurs and Chelsea). In turn, last summer, United forced the sale of Robin Van Persie. Arsenal appeared weak and, for the last few years, before the league had even started, Arsenal had lost it.

“When the Enemy is relaxed, make them toil”

The man under the most pressure this summer is David Moyes. Taking over from the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson at Old Trafford would be tough for anyone; it’s even tougher for someone who has never managed a team with title aspirations. Given the pressure, Moyes would have hoped this summer would be uneventful, allowing him to get his feet firmly under the table. Instead the most experienced premiership managers at the top, Jose Mourinho and Wenger have rattled United’s cage by targeting Wayne Rooney. This has put Moyes under serious pressure early on in his United career and it will be vital to his future that he responds in a positive and decisive way so as not to appear weak. If Mourinho, the best at this game, feels that he can get under Moyes’s skin then it could be a difficult debut season for the new United boss.

“Hence that general is skilful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skilful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.”

If Jose is having fun the
Premiership had better watch out.

In recent days Mourinho and Chelsea have publically had a bid for Rooney turned down. Mourinho then upped the ante by stating that Rooney is their only target and that it was “Rooney or bust.” Despite the fact that this is obviously a bigger lie than Clinton’s denial of Lewinsky, this creates a massive problem for Moyes. Either he keeps Rooney and has a constant destabilizing influence in the dressing room thus exacerbating the pressure, or Moyes sells Rooney and looks weak because it appears that he has been bullied into it.

A misleading picture.

The genius of Mourinho in this situation is that it is certain that Moyes wants to sell Rooney. By publically declaring his interest for Rooney, Mourinho has backed Moyes into a corner from which he can’t escape. Moyes wants to put his own stamp on the team and needs to show the dressing room he is the boss. An ideal way to do that would be to sell a disgruntled star like Rooney to show that the club cannot be held to ransom by any player. As Sir Alex used to say, “nobody is bigger than the club.” Now Moyes has been forced to come out and say that he doesn’t want to sell Rooney, leaving an “angry and confused” Rooney in United’s dressing room. Either way this pans out, I think Mourinho gets his man eventually, Mourinho has won this early confrontation by sowing seeds of discord at United.

“All warfare is based on deception.”

Arsene Wenger meanwhile has got some money to spend and the mojo is back. Wenger’s main target appears to be Gonzalo Higuain. This deal hasn’t gone through due to the fact that Wenger has been having too much fun destabilizing United with his own suggestions of a bid for Rooney and also disrupting Liverpool by kicking their tires over Luis Suarez. Suarez and Liverpool would prefer a move to Real Madrid but as any viewers of last week’s Top Gear are aware, the Spanish are broke. Both Madrid and Barcelona have been operating under a sell to buy policy for a couple of seasons now and this would help to explain the reasoning behind the sell off to Bayern of Barcelona’s best young talent in Thiago Alcantara. This elaborate smoke screen of name dropping is a deception designed to unsettle his domestic opponents and you can tell that Wenger is enjoying putting the boot in to his rivals for once before signing Higuain.  

“In battle, there are not more than two methods of attack—the direct and the indirect”

On the whole of the internet there is
not a single picture of Moyes
in a hat. Weird.

One way for Moyes to get back at Arsenal would be to strike a psychological blow indirectly. There are no players at Arsenal that Moyes would desperately want so another way must be found. The thing that would really upset Arsenal and Wenger would be if Cesc Fabregas joined Robin Van Persie at United. You would have to imagine their faces looking something like this. Wenger betrayed his fear of this possibility by declaring that it was impossible for United to sign Fabregas because, “he is staying at Barcelona for another year.” Arsenal own the first refusal on Fabregas but if they cannot match United’s bid then they forgo their right to sign him. If Moyes could pull this unlikely rabbit out of his hat he could yet have a chance of winning the war before the games have even started.

“There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. ”

Manchester City have avoided this undignified ruckus by going on tour South Africa. They have made the astute signing of Jesus Navas, an electric winger who was one the standout players in the Confederations Cup. Fellow Spaniard, Alvaro Negredo, a natural finisher and Montenegrin forward, Stevan Jovetic, will join Navas. All of these players have the natural ability to perform to a championship level next season. Whilst the other teams have damaged each other in the heat of the Far East, Manchester City’s progress under new manager Manuel Pellegrini has been serene. Manchester City have been playing in the Nelson Mandela Football Invitational Tournament. They have not been able to meet Mandela due to his prolonged health problems but if they had, his famously wise and pacifist advice may have gone something like this, “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”